« Home | Eric Johnson Placed on IR » | Slow Start for OC » | Roundtable: Battle & Lloyd » | Peterson Guarantees Win » | Newton: Incident with the Birds » | Reality Check » | Embarrassing: Niners 3, Eagles 42 » | Chopra - Gift Wrapped » | Stegeman - A New Leaf? » | Not in Much of a Rush »

Gameday: Cowboys at 49ers

GAMEDAY PREVIEW
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

By Matthew Gagnon
49ersnew.com Staff Writer


I asked to do this gameday preview for one reason. Its no secret that I live in New England, and that (yes its true) I actually like the Patriots almost as much as I like the 49ers (for anyone who cares – I was born in San Francisco, and moved to Maine, so I generally root for 2 teams in all sports).

In any event, as a resident and fan of New England I watched Bill Parcells coach the Patriots and then bolt right after a Super Bowl loss. I happen to be quite familiar with Mr. Parcells, his methods, his teams, and his style. So there was no way I was going to pass up a chance to evaluate his team when the 49ers face off with him at the stick.

Now on to the preview.

Full Gameday Preview...

UP TO THIS POINT

49ers

The are coming off one of the worst losses in my lifetime. Losing 42-3, San Francisco looked bad in basically every area. Tim Rattay had easily the worst game of his young career, the running game was once again non-existent, and the defense that looked so solid in week one was torched.

In the opening win against the Rams, the 49ers looked much better. Rattay performed extremely well, throwing for 165 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 141.9 passer rating, the highest of his career. The running game had trouble getting off the ground, but with the trickery Nolan had in store for the Rams, they were able to squeak by without a running game. San Francisco’s defense played inspired football, bending but not breaking.

Overall in the first two games, we have two rather anemic performances by the 49ers offense. It showed life only at times, and was woeful on the ground. On defense, the 49ers looked strong in week one, but were completely overmatched in week two. How they bounce back in week three is likely the key to the game.

For more information about how specifically the numbers have panned out in the first two games, go to http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/SF/2005/regular

Cowboys

Dallas is also coming off a devastating loss. But rather than being blown out, the lost in a dramatic meltdown on Monday night against the Redskins. The Cowboy defense gave up big plays to Washington at the wrong time, and after initially moving the ball well, the offense was unable to really threaten late in the game.

In week one, the Cowboys won a hard fought battle with last years surprise contender, the San Diego Chargers. The 28-24 win showed that the 2005 Cowboys intend to win the games that slipped out of their fingers last year. They mounted a strong rushing attack, and Drew Bledsoe, left for dead by most analysts, lit up the Chargers secondary for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns.

So only two weeks into the season, the Cowboys have been involved in two narrow games, one a win, and won a loss. Clearly the play of the defense has improved, keeping them in games, and the offense has for the most part done its job. One thing the Cowboys are not, however, is the Eagles. This game should prove much closer than last weeks manhandling of the Niners by Philadelphia.

For more information about how specifically the numbers have panned out in the first two games, go to http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/DAL/2005/regular

KEYS TO THE GAME

Offense

Priority number one for the 49ers must be to establish something that resembles a running game. The embarrassing showing in the first and second games of the season can not continue if Nolan is serious about contending for a division title.

In the first game, 49ers running backs combined for 1.6 yards per carry on 21 rushes for a total of 34 yards. Facing Philadelphia, the Niners did in fact improve slightly. The Niners averaging 3.4 yards per carry for 58 yards last Sunday, which was an improvement, but still without question unacceptable.

Continuing that rushing improvement is the only way the 49ers can have a chance at winning games this year. A solid rushing game takes pressure off the quarterback, and opens up the passing game. Most importantly though, it keeps the offense on the field gaining first downs and pressuring the opponents defense, while the defense rests on the sidelines. That defense has basically played 3 ½ games worth of time on the field in the last two weeks.

This can not be overstated, and as such San Francisco must begin to run the ball. There are a couple things that may contribute to an improved rushing attack this week. Personnel and play calling.

When I say personnel, I’m talking about the rushing load being shifted to a more 50/50 split look, between Barlow and Gore. I am of the belief that Barlow is capable, but that he is at his most effective when he compliments another back, and clearly through the first two games, Gore has fared better on the ground.

A quick look at his numbers will show this. In game one he had 17 yards on 4 rushes for a 4.25 avg. Game two saw 15 yards, again on 4 carries for a 3.75 avg. These numbers don’t blow you away obviously, but when they are compared to Barlow’s 1.5 yards per carry in game one, and 3.4 yards per carry in game two they show that at the very least he couldn’t be any less productive than Barlow. Compound that with a visual evaluation that has me believing he is more apt to attack the hole, where Barlow scans the hole, and I believe you see a back that is more likely to make something out of nothing.

Now, in regard to play calling, there is not a soul who could possibly say the offensive play calling in the first two games has been well done. Even casual fans noticed a distinct “run run pass” pattern emerging on every 3 and out the Niners put together in the last two weeks. Moreover, the “run run” portion of that formula seems to be halfback dives up the middle, with obviously no holes being formed.

Mike McCarthy has to do a better job calling the offensive plays. If he insists on running the ball, he must mix it up, perhaps passing on first and second down more often. When he decides to run, it might be a good idea to attempt to spread the field. The 49ers do not have Jerome Bettis in his prime to plow over people in the middle; running to the outside would especially take advantage of the potential explosiveness of Gore, and at the very least would allow Barlow to make some moves in stead of simply pounding the ball up the middle.

And in regard to the pass, with the loss of the 49ers key weapon, tight end Eric Johnson, its time McCarthy looked at some of his production from the running back position. Where Barlow has failed running the ball, he has excelled receiving, as has Gore. In game one, Barlow had 2 catches for 17 yards and Gore had 2 catches for 21 yards. In game two Barlow caught 3 balls for 31 yards.

It seems clear to me, that especially given the removal of the mid field tight end threat, the 49ers should borrow a page from the 1980s 49er playbook and design some short halfback passes, to take advantage of the obvious open field talent of the backs.

And would it really hurt to spread the field out with some 4 and 5 wide receiver sets? Offense is built on keeping the opponent off balance, and if the 49ers can move the ball effectively with any combination of rushing and short passes, imagine if they threw 5 wide receivers (and make no mistake, San Francisco has 5 quality receivers to put out there) on the field.

The Dallas defense is greatly improved, but it has holes that can in fact be exploited. First, they are running a 3-4 defense, and are doing so for the first year. 3-4 defenses are notorious for giving up rushing yardage, so if San Francisco is going to put it together on the ground, this is the week. Moreover, the Cowboys linebacking corps which in any 3-4 is the foundation of good defense, is not particularly distinguished as of yet. Rookie outside linebacker Demarcus Ware is going to be a phenom in the NFL, but remember, this is only his third game, and as the Cowboys website admits, he is still adjusting to the 3-4, and the NFL.

Overall though, the Dallas defense is very strong, and should fare well against the struggling 49er offense. Certainly, just the presence of Parcells has made quite an impact in the Cowboys philosophy – he has always wanted to control games with defense. If San Francisco hopes to win, they have to make some adjustments and get something going offensively. Rest assured, this will be no easy assignment against the Cowboys.

ADVANTAGE – COWBOYS DEFENSE

Defense

The Parcells philosophy has always been two fold. On defense, you must shut down the opponent, and do so quickly. He attempts to do so with dominant linebackers and linemen (which I believe he will have as the year goes one, and into the future), who have speed and strength.

On offense, he wants to grind your team down and destroy them by running the ball. Parcells is not one for a flashy offense that will light you up for 50 points (although from time to dime, it does). He wants to run the ball down your throat, getting first down after first down, wearing your defense down, and controlling all aspects of the game clock.

His passing attack has always been predicated on accurate and reliable passers who have less flash and more grit. That is why he has rescued Drew Bledsoe and installed him under center. Bledsoe is not somebody who will torch your defense week after week with deep balls, threaded needle passes and playmaker skill. He is a fairly accurate quarterback, who is poised and intelligent, and has the ability to beat you when given time to pass.

The offense the 49ers face this week is nothing like the one they saw last week in Philadelphia. The weak San Francisco secondary should fare much better, because Parcells and Bledsoe are not the one who will press your defense constantly through the air. They have solid, but not elite receivers who need to be attended to, but shouldn’t pose the threat of a Terrell Owens facing his old team.

The real threat on offense is Julius Jones, a promising second year back. Jones has shown Parcells a different kind of runner than those he has employed before. His game is one of speed and cutback moves, making defenses look foolish by making a juke and flying past them. He is a deadly weapon, and one that can not be ignored.

The key to success for the 49ers is in stopping Jones. Hopefully, the linebacking corps can stop talking long enough to spy on Jones and make some plays. Last week McNabb torched the San Francisco secondary, which opened up a second rate rusher like Westbrook to gain over 100 yards. That won’t happen this week; the pressure will begin on the ground, not the air. Peterson, Smith, Ulbrich and Winborn must step up and make plays on Jones.

Part two of stopping the Cowboys is to pressure the quarterback, much like they did in week one. Bledsoe was never a mobile quarterback, but in recent years he has given the term “statue” a textbook definition. He succeeds when he has time, but when pressured he is unable to bounce outside the pocket and escape the sack. If the Niners do a good job pressuring, the 7 sacks of week one could be eclipsed. They will have to get through the Dallas line to do that, but I believe they can.

Once the pressure gets to Bledsoe he will either lose big yards, or make mistakes. If the 49ers can force mistakes, they may be looking at turnovers which would help the offense keep the pressure on Dallas.

The Dallas offense is nothing to take lightly; it can kill you if you don’t pay attention to it. But it too has its weaknesses, and I believe the Niners are uniquely suited to deal with the Cowboys attack.

ADVANTAGE – 49ERS DEFENSE

OVERALL

It seems to me that this will be a defensive struggle, and that the outcome of the game will fall squarely on the match up of Jones vs. the San Francisco run defense. If the 49ers stop Jones effectively, and make Bledsoe throw while being pressured, the 49ers win. If Jones moves the chains, opening up Bledsoe to strike his receivers without pressure, the Cowboys win.

Personally, I get the same feeling this week that I had in week one. The 49ers can in fact win this game, and if they play how I know they can play, they will. However, I have a sneaking suspicion Jones will break a couple plays that will lead to touchdowns eventually, and that the 49ers will continue to struggle scoring points.

PREDICTION – DALLAS 17 SAN FRANCISCO 10